SW Weather Forecast: What to Expect This SeasonThe Southwest United States is known for its diverse climate and unique weather patterns, especially as the transition into winter approaches. For the 2025-2026 season, several factors, including the impact of La Niña, are shaping the weather expectations. Here’s a comprehensive look at what the Southwest can expect this season.
Current Overview of Weather Patterns
As of November 2025, a La Niña event is impacting weather across the nation, with implications for temperature and precipitation patterns in the Southwest. La Niña typically leads to cooler conditions, enhanced precipitation in some regions, and above-average temperatures in others.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued forecasts indicating that November will usher in a mix of weather, characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the Southwest. As we move deeper into winter, these trends will continue to evolve.
Temperature Trends
The temperature outlook for November indicates a strong possibility of above-normal temperatures across much of the Southwest, particularly in areas like central Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico. Here’s a breakdown of expected temperature trends:
| Region | Temperature Outlook |
|---|---|
| Southern California | Above-normal |
| Arizona | Warmer than average |
| New Mexico | Above-normal |
| Central Texas | Above-normal |
| Nevada | Near average |
These warmer conditions may continue into December and January, although cold air outbreaks from Canada could introduce temporary drops in temperature, particularly in northern areas.
Precipitation Forecast
The precipitation outlook shows variability due to La Niña. The NOAA forecast predicts:
- Increased precipitation likely in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies.
- Drier-than-average conditions expected across most of the Southeast and parts of western Texas and New Mexico.
Here’s what to anticipate specifically:
- California will experience significant rainfall events, particularly due to a strong atmospheric river that is anticipated to affect the state. This could bring heavy showers and mountain snow to higher elevations.
- New Mexico and regions of Arizona may see drier conditions exacerbating existing drought situations.
| Region | Precipitation Outlook |
|---|---|
| Southern California | Wet due to atmospheric rivers |
| Arizona | Below normal |
| New Mexico | Drier than average |
| Oklahoma | Near average |
| Texas | Variable, with potential for storms |
Severe Weather Events
November traditionally sees the onset of the “second severe weather season” in the Southwest, especially across Texas and Oklahoma. The clash between warmer air from the south and colder air from the north can lead to severe thunderstorms and even tornado outbreaks.
Last November, a significant outbreak featured multiple tornadoes across Oklahoma and Texas. As the month progresses, residents should remain vigilant, especially in regions prone to extreme weather events.
Winter Forecast: December to February
Looking ahead to the winter months of December, January, and February, projections under the effects of La Niña suggest a complex scenario:
- Temperatures may trend colder in northern areas while remaining mild further south, with variation across regions.
- Precipitation is expected to be above normal across the Upper Midwest, but drier conditions may persist in some Southwest areas.
| Winter Months | Temperature Trends | Precipitation Trends |
|---|---|---|
| December | Mild in the south, colder north | Variable, with potential for drier patterns |
| January | Cold outbreaks possible | Above normal in the north |
| February | Mild start, colder towards end | Likely drier for southern areas |
Key Takeaways
Overall, the Southwest can expect a mixture of warmer-than-average temperatures and fluctuating precipitation patterns influenced by La Niña. Residents are encouraged to prepare for both the benefits and challenges of seasonal weather changes. With the possibility of severe weather events, staying informed through weather updates is essential.
As the season progresses, monitoring forecasts from reliable sources will help residents adapt to the shifting weather conditions, ensuring safety and preparedness as winter approaches.